Later this year Delhi will host the 19th Commonwealth Games, as with all large expensive international events it is the long term effects and impact that there success is now measured on. Business Involvement at the Games will be essential to ensuring the Games have a lasting impact on the City, and was one of the most important reasons for the city agreeing to host. As we saw recently in Trinidad and Tobago at CHOGM the private sector presence can contribute the most to the host country, the new partnerships and relationships that started there ensure that the organising country’s investment pays off over the coming years.
Sporting Events are no different - the world cup in south Africa, for example, is expected to pump around R21.3-billion into South Africa's economy and create an estimated 159 000 new jobs. CBC will be working with CII to ensure that the Private Sector from across the Commonwealth is represented at the Games and that the Business dimension of the games is Strong.
Thursday, 14 January 2010
Wednesday, 6 January 2010
What will 2010 bring?
Contrary to all expectations at the beginning of the year 2009 ended with a majority of the developing nations in surprisingly strong economic positions. Most of the largest developing nation stock markets have recouped all the losses made in 2008, and countries such as China and India have avoided recession all together, only experiencing reduced growth. 2010 will have a much greater emphasis on the G20 and the BRICs countries than we have ever seen.
Recovery in the developed nations will now depend much more on how the consumer acts in India, China and other emerging markets. Demand for imports of high value manufactured goods from the BRIC countries can help drive forward recovery in western countries. There is evidence that Germany, France and Spain are enhancing manufacturing capacity to match the increasing demand from India and other countries, I hope the UK will follow suit.
Energy is going to be an important sector in 2010 as we move more towards clean technologies it will create new manufacturing opportunities in both the developing and developed world. Infrastructure represents a similar opportunity, the high demand in India and Africa will create opportunities for specialised companies in the western world. Africa will be the focus of a push for increased global agricultural production.
As Developing countries return to stronger growth they will help push the whole of the global economy out of recession. Consequently, how the developing world manages its economies will have a much greater impact on the western countries than ever before.
2009 was not the end of globalisation as some predicted, rather, we have seen just how linked the world economies have become. Globalisation will now be driven more by the BRIC countries, the G20 and the developing world than before, so it is in all our best interests to see the Developing world do better.
In this light I hope that 2010 will see a successful conclusion to the Doha Round of trade talks, this will depend much on the level of emphasis the developed countries put on it. In 2010 I think the major difference will be in the respective importance of the G20 and G8. The G20 will come to the fore on most Global Issues. There has been a reversal that will be all the more obvious in 2010, for the last 2 decades the consumer in the West has been buying from the manufacturer in the East, now it is the Consumers in Asian Countries that will drive forward the next stage of globalisation.
Recovery in the developed nations will now depend much more on how the consumer acts in India, China and other emerging markets. Demand for imports of high value manufactured goods from the BRIC countries can help drive forward recovery in western countries. There is evidence that Germany, France and Spain are enhancing manufacturing capacity to match the increasing demand from India and other countries, I hope the UK will follow suit.
Energy is going to be an important sector in 2010 as we move more towards clean technologies it will create new manufacturing opportunities in both the developing and developed world. Infrastructure represents a similar opportunity, the high demand in India and Africa will create opportunities for specialised companies in the western world. Africa will be the focus of a push for increased global agricultural production.
As Developing countries return to stronger growth they will help push the whole of the global economy out of recession. Consequently, how the developing world manages its economies will have a much greater impact on the western countries than ever before.
2009 was not the end of globalisation as some predicted, rather, we have seen just how linked the world economies have become. Globalisation will now be driven more by the BRIC countries, the G20 and the developing world than before, so it is in all our best interests to see the Developing world do better.
In this light I hope that 2010 will see a successful conclusion to the Doha Round of trade talks, this will depend much on the level of emphasis the developed countries put on it. In 2010 I think the major difference will be in the respective importance of the G20 and G8. The G20 will come to the fore on most Global Issues. There has been a reversal that will be all the more obvious in 2010, for the last 2 decades the consumer in the West has been buying from the manufacturer in the East, now it is the Consumers in Asian Countries that will drive forward the next stage of globalisation.
Tuesday, 22 December 2009
Copenhagen, and the future
The conclusion of the Climate Change Talks in Copenhagen has left us with a lot of lessons to be learned. The management of the talks left a lot to be desired both in terms of the Agenda and in the range of involvement. Developing countries do not like to be left out in the cold; they want to be fully involved in the talks that will have so much impact on their future development. I’m am glad to see the UN Secretary General has recognised this and will work to improve the negotiation process before the next round of talks
I must admit to a feeling of déjà vu watching the talks progress. Before Doha, it would have often been the G8 countries coming together, making decisions and then letting everyone else know what had been decided. While on this occasion the range of countries involved was much wider (almost the G20) it still excluded some of the countries that will be the worst affected by climate change.
One good thing is immediately apparent coming out of the talks, the high emission countries, the US, EU, China, India, Japan, etc are now fully involved in finding a solution to climate change and its causes. While the agreement is not legally binding, by publically committing to the accord the countries are recognising the problem and have agreed to work to keep global temperature rises below 2oc – this is progress.
One of the foreseeable outcomes of the agreement as it moves to implementation is the cost of development in developing countries increasing; this will change the future path of development. While the agreement makes previsions to increased Aid to the developing world, $30 Billion over the next 3 years, and $100 billion by 2020, this is not likely to be new money - the state of the finances in the developed countries makes that improbable.
The cost of development and the way it takes place will have to be reviewed, with less government money going to traditional development projects there may well be greater competition between developing nations to attract private sector support. Also the private sectors involvement, from the very beginning, in the roll out of carbon trading and the use clean technologies to the developing world is absolutely essential.
lets hope 2010 will be bring a new commitment from governments and the private sector to work for cleaner technology and lower emissions.
I must admit to a feeling of déjà vu watching the talks progress. Before Doha, it would have often been the G8 countries coming together, making decisions and then letting everyone else know what had been decided. While on this occasion the range of countries involved was much wider (almost the G20) it still excluded some of the countries that will be the worst affected by climate change.
One good thing is immediately apparent coming out of the talks, the high emission countries, the US, EU, China, India, Japan, etc are now fully involved in finding a solution to climate change and its causes. While the agreement is not legally binding, by publically committing to the accord the countries are recognising the problem and have agreed to work to keep global temperature rises below 2oc – this is progress.
One of the foreseeable outcomes of the agreement as it moves to implementation is the cost of development in developing countries increasing; this will change the future path of development. While the agreement makes previsions to increased Aid to the developing world, $30 Billion over the next 3 years, and $100 billion by 2020, this is not likely to be new money - the state of the finances in the developed countries makes that improbable.
The cost of development and the way it takes place will have to be reviewed, with less government money going to traditional development projects there may well be greater competition between developing nations to attract private sector support. Also the private sectors involvement, from the very beginning, in the roll out of carbon trading and the use clean technologies to the developing world is absolutely essential.
lets hope 2010 will be bring a new commitment from governments and the private sector to work for cleaner technology and lower emissions.
Tuesday, 15 December 2009
Commonwealth Business Forum
It was a new and interesting experience holding an event the size of the Commonwealth Business Forum on a cruise ship. The Forum was instrumental in building new partnerships that represent the new global alliances coming out of the changes to the global economy caused by the financial crisis of the past year.
The Forum has become a key mechanism for developing south-south relationships and increasing investment to small states and developing countries. Examples of the real business done at the Forum include:
1) Agreements on Oil and Gas partnerships between Trinidad & Tobago and West African States
2) Agreement between British Companies to invest in Grenada on Agriculture
3) Agreement between Canadian Companies and the Government of Grenada to work together on Healthcare
4) Agreement between Malaysian Companies to work with the Caribbean on Tourism and Telecommunications
5) Agreement between Indian Companies and Trinidad and Tobago to work together on ICT projects
6) Agreement Between an American company and Trinidad and Tobago to work together on Clean Technology
7) Agreement Between a Dutch company and African States to work together on Clean Technology solutions
8) And many more…..
I am delighted to see such solid outcomes from the Business Forum and am certain there will be a lasting impact on the economies in the region over the coming years.
Aside from the business done, the Forum has become a key private sector event, where business can forge a strong dialogue with Governments on trade and investment issues. 10 Heads of Government, sharing a stage with over 100 business leaders, spoke passionately and informatively on topics such as climate change, the impacts of the financial crisis and ways of improving the business climate. The Forums findings were submitted to CHOGM for the Heads consideration and can be read here.
The 2009 Business Forum was the largest event the CBC has ever held it brought together over 1100 investors and interested parties for debated and discussion in 10 Plenary and 40 Breakout sessions. I look forward to carrying this success forward to all CBC will undertake in the New Year.
The Forum has become a key mechanism for developing south-south relationships and increasing investment to small states and developing countries. Examples of the real business done at the Forum include:
1) Agreements on Oil and Gas partnerships between Trinidad & Tobago and West African States
2) Agreement between British Companies to invest in Grenada on Agriculture
3) Agreement between Canadian Companies and the Government of Grenada to work together on Healthcare
4) Agreement between Malaysian Companies to work with the Caribbean on Tourism and Telecommunications
5) Agreement between Indian Companies and Trinidad and Tobago to work together on ICT projects
6) Agreement Between an American company and Trinidad and Tobago to work together on Clean Technology
7) Agreement Between a Dutch company and African States to work together on Clean Technology solutions
8) And many more…..
I am delighted to see such solid outcomes from the Business Forum and am certain there will be a lasting impact on the economies in the region over the coming years.
Aside from the business done, the Forum has become a key private sector event, where business can forge a strong dialogue with Governments on trade and investment issues. 10 Heads of Government, sharing a stage with over 100 business leaders, spoke passionately and informatively on topics such as climate change, the impacts of the financial crisis and ways of improving the business climate. The Forums findings were submitted to CHOGM for the Heads consideration and can be read here.
The 2009 Business Forum was the largest event the CBC has ever held it brought together over 1100 investors and interested parties for debated and discussion in 10 Plenary and 40 Breakout sessions. I look forward to carrying this success forward to all CBC will undertake in the New Year.
Monday, 30 November 2009
The Commonwealth at 60 and the Commonwealth Factor
The role and significance of the Commonwealth is a perennial topic alongside every Heads’ meeting. As CEO of the Commonwealth’s business association, which links hundreds of vibrant companies across the 53 countries I find that the Commonwealth is often both undervalued and underappreciated. My concern is not that the association will wither into obscurity, but we need to always need to keep the association relevant for today. What is its greatest strength?
The Commonwealth’s unique selling point or usp is not in its institutions but in its networks, values and the more elusive, but potent, ‘Commonwealth Factor’. This derives from of a common historical experience reflected in the similar administrative, legal, financial and business practices that members share, as well as the use of the English language. The Commonwealth Factor when leveraged, as CBC does to promote trade and investment, with Commonwealth values of multi party democracy, human rights, the rule of law, good governance, free press, and socially responsible market orientated policies, is when real results are seen.
The Commonwealth Secretariat, the inter-governmental organisation of the Commonwealth, can’t be a leading development organisation, its budget is too small, a fraction of the larger NGOs. However, in my 25 years of experience with the Commonwealth it has been through more assessments than the UN and many other international organisations, all of which are very many times larger than the Secretariat. Unfortunately the Secretariat is undervalued, underfunded and over-assessed, and nothing much will be achieved by yet another assessment exercise.
Nurturing, leveraging and promoting the ideals and the values at the core of the Commonwealth, is the key to CBC’s success and has lead to greater investment opportunities in Commonwealth countries. Commonwealth member states are increasingly being seen as ideal locations for doing business, thanks in a large part to this ‘Commonwealth factor’. Intra-Commonwealth trade has increased from $2 trillion to $3 Trillion over the last 10 years, Investment flows have reached over US$180 billion and Commonwealth trade and investment accounts for over 20 per cent of the world total. The Commonwealth Factor, we believe, can decrease the cost of doing business by anything up to 15%. The Commonwealth is the home to some of the most dynamic and successful new global companies in fields critical to development – ICT, technology and energy, finance, and agriculture. Increasingly the modern Commonwealth is defined by the emerging economies – for example India, Nigeria, South Africa, Malaysia, Trinidad and Tobago – these are new economic centres of excellence growing in importance alongside the UK, Australia and Canada. The association is certainly not lacking in innovation and success.
Another aspect of the Commonwealth Association which is valued greatly across by member countries is skills development and education. I am disappointed by the NGO’s who are ‘so called’ advocates of the Commonwealth but dwell on the association’s past and are not looking to its future. The Commonwealth could obviously use greater resources, but of even greater import is sustained commitment to and recognition of the Commonwealth factor and networks, that can be leveraged to enhance the lives of so many across the association.
The future of the Commonwealth must focus on enhancing the characteristics I have mentioned, its values and networks so that more and more of Commonwealth Citizens can take advantage of their shared heritage.
The Commonwealth’s unique selling point or usp is not in its institutions but in its networks, values and the more elusive, but potent, ‘Commonwealth Factor’. This derives from of a common historical experience reflected in the similar administrative, legal, financial and business practices that members share, as well as the use of the English language. The Commonwealth Factor when leveraged, as CBC does to promote trade and investment, with Commonwealth values of multi party democracy, human rights, the rule of law, good governance, free press, and socially responsible market orientated policies, is when real results are seen.
The Commonwealth Secretariat, the inter-governmental organisation of the Commonwealth, can’t be a leading development organisation, its budget is too small, a fraction of the larger NGOs. However, in my 25 years of experience with the Commonwealth it has been through more assessments than the UN and many other international organisations, all of which are very many times larger than the Secretariat. Unfortunately the Secretariat is undervalued, underfunded and over-assessed, and nothing much will be achieved by yet another assessment exercise.
Nurturing, leveraging and promoting the ideals and the values at the core of the Commonwealth, is the key to CBC’s success and has lead to greater investment opportunities in Commonwealth countries. Commonwealth member states are increasingly being seen as ideal locations for doing business, thanks in a large part to this ‘Commonwealth factor’. Intra-Commonwealth trade has increased from $2 trillion to $3 Trillion over the last 10 years, Investment flows have reached over US$180 billion and Commonwealth trade and investment accounts for over 20 per cent of the world total. The Commonwealth Factor, we believe, can decrease the cost of doing business by anything up to 15%. The Commonwealth is the home to some of the most dynamic and successful new global companies in fields critical to development – ICT, technology and energy, finance, and agriculture. Increasingly the modern Commonwealth is defined by the emerging economies – for example India, Nigeria, South Africa, Malaysia, Trinidad and Tobago – these are new economic centres of excellence growing in importance alongside the UK, Australia and Canada. The association is certainly not lacking in innovation and success.
Another aspect of the Commonwealth Association which is valued greatly across by member countries is skills development and education. I am disappointed by the NGO’s who are ‘so called’ advocates of the Commonwealth but dwell on the association’s past and are not looking to its future. The Commonwealth could obviously use greater resources, but of even greater import is sustained commitment to and recognition of the Commonwealth factor and networks, that can be leveraged to enhance the lives of so many across the association.
The future of the Commonwealth must focus on enhancing the characteristics I have mentioned, its values and networks so that more and more of Commonwealth Citizens can take advantage of their shared heritage.
Friday, 13 November 2009
India, Prudence and FDI
The Indian Prime Minister’s, Manmohan Singh, recent announcements about new economic reforms, particularly the 10% divestment of public sector companies, is movement in the right direction.
India is satisfied that it has avoided the worst of the global financial crisis, its conservative banking system and high capital ratio have protected it from the worst of the global turmoil. However, this conservatism works both ways, yes it reduces risk, but it also limits access. In India, this means millions of potential entrepreneurs are excluded from the financial systems that they can use to prosper. Prudence is good, but too great a level can limit growth and exclude too many members of society. To accelerate the rate of growth India should, perhaps, be a little less prudent.
Relatively low levels of FDI in India, only $121 billion over the last 8 years, are a mystery to me. India represents a fantastic investment opportunity and the levels should be higher. Recent Figures have shown a 9.1% increase in industrial production from last year, and the Government’s commitment to $500 Billion in infrastructure investment, a figure that will be far higher when including the Private Sector contribution. The IFC, the World Bank’s private sector arm, decision to increase India’s exposure from the $3.4 Billion or 10% of its portfolio last year, are all signs of confidence in India’s policy and growth. As one of the few countries where economic activity is near levels hit before the economic crisis, India will prove to be one of the most attractive investment destinations over the coming years.
India is satisfied that it has avoided the worst of the global financial crisis, its conservative banking system and high capital ratio have protected it from the worst of the global turmoil. However, this conservatism works both ways, yes it reduces risk, but it also limits access. In India, this means millions of potential entrepreneurs are excluded from the financial systems that they can use to prosper. Prudence is good, but too great a level can limit growth and exclude too many members of society. To accelerate the rate of growth India should, perhaps, be a little less prudent.
Relatively low levels of FDI in India, only $121 billion over the last 8 years, are a mystery to me. India represents a fantastic investment opportunity and the levels should be higher. Recent Figures have shown a 9.1% increase in industrial production from last year, and the Government’s commitment to $500 Billion in infrastructure investment, a figure that will be far higher when including the Private Sector contribution. The IFC, the World Bank’s private sector arm, decision to increase India’s exposure from the $3.4 Billion or 10% of its portfolio last year, are all signs of confidence in India’s policy and growth. As one of the few countries where economic activity is near levels hit before the economic crisis, India will prove to be one of the most attractive investment destinations over the coming years.
Thursday, 5 November 2009
Indian Infrastructure
I had the pleasure of attending an event with President Patil of India last week. The President was in the UK to promote UK India relations and strengthen business ties between the 2 countries. Last week was very much an ‘India week’ in London, demonstrating the importance of the relationship to the 2 countries the President’s trip coincided with the return of the Lord Mayor of London from India where he was leading a business delegation from the City.
I feel, that while there have been successful experiences for UK Infrastructure companies in India, CBC members Arup and Mott MacDonald to name a couple, the experience has not always been as rewarding. Due in part to the Strength of the Home Grown construction sector that is better connected than International companies can hope to be. The lesson for UK construction companies in India is to find the right local partner, one who shares the same business goals and has the capacity to deliver. While there are challenges to finding the right partner in India the arguments in favour of entering the market allied with an Indian company are overwhelming.
I feel, that while there have been successful experiences for UK Infrastructure companies in India, CBC members Arup and Mott MacDonald to name a couple, the experience has not always been as rewarding. Due in part to the Strength of the Home Grown construction sector that is better connected than International companies can hope to be. The lesson for UK construction companies in India is to find the right local partner, one who shares the same business goals and has the capacity to deliver. While there are challenges to finding the right partner in India the arguments in favour of entering the market allied with an Indian company are overwhelming.
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