Wednesday, 6 January 2010

What will 2010 bring?

Contrary to all expectations at the beginning of the year 2009 ended with a majority of the developing nations in surprisingly strong economic positions. Most of the largest developing nation stock markets have recouped all the losses made in 2008, and countries such as China and India have avoided recession all together, only experiencing reduced growth. 2010 will have a much greater emphasis on the G20 and the BRICs countries than we have ever seen.

Recovery in the developed nations will now depend much more on how the consumer acts in India, China and other emerging markets. Demand for imports of high value manufactured goods from the BRIC countries can help drive forward recovery in western countries. There is evidence that Germany, France and Spain are enhancing manufacturing capacity to match the increasing demand from India and other countries, I hope the UK will follow suit.

Energy is going to be an important sector in 2010 as we move more towards clean technologies it will create new manufacturing opportunities in both the developing and developed world. Infrastructure represents a similar opportunity, the high demand in India and Africa will create opportunities for specialised companies in the western world. Africa will be the focus of a push for increased global agricultural production.

As Developing countries return to stronger growth they will help push the whole of the global economy out of recession. Consequently, how the developing world manages its economies will have a much greater impact on the western countries than ever before.

2009 was not the end of globalisation as some predicted, rather, we have seen just how linked the world economies have become. Globalisation will now be driven more by the BRIC countries, the G20 and the developing world than before, so it is in all our best interests to see the Developing world do better.

In this light I hope that 2010 will see a successful conclusion to the Doha Round of trade talks, this will depend much on the level of emphasis the developed countries put on it. In 2010 I think the major difference will be in the respective importance of the G20 and G8. The G20 will come to the fore on most Global Issues. There has been a reversal that will be all the more obvious in 2010, for the last 2 decades the consumer in the West has been buying from the manufacturer in the East, now it is the Consumers in Asian Countries that will drive forward the next stage of globalisation.

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