G20

One of the inevitable results of the Global Financial crisis was the widening of international economic discourses beyond the G8. I welcome the official recognition of G20 in this new role, as the first line of the Communiqué put it, Canada was the first meeting of the G20 in its ‘new capacity as the premier forum for our international economic cooperation’. The G20 is a bigger and more inclusive forum than its predecessor the G8, containing wider views and more of the countries who were least affected by the financial crisis. The G20 should be better placed than the ‘western’ orientated G8 to prevent future banking crises.

I also welcome and fully support Prime Minster David Cameron’s remarks during the summit on the importance of the Doha round of trade talks. He commented that all countries will befit from an increase in trade flows and that his government would be pushing for the rounds conclusion. He added that the concluded round could contribute over $170 billion to the world economy, this I think would be very welcome at a time when global growth is still sluggish.

Finally i was pleased that a B20 meeting was held alongside the G20 meeting for the first time. This gathering of business leaders was designed to allow the views of the private sector to be fed into the G20’s deliberations. The private sector is essential to ensuring a sustainable global recovery. I am pleased that John Denton, a CBC Board Member, was representing Australian business at the event and look forward to working closely with the B20 in the future.

What will 2010 bring?

Contrary to all expectations at the beginning of the year 2009 ended with a majority of the developing nations in surprisingly strong economic positions. Most of the largest developing nation stock markets have recouped all the losses made in 2008, and countries such as China and India have avoided recession all together, only experiencing reduced growth. 2010 will have a much greater emphasis on the G20 and the BRICs countries than we have ever seen.

Recovery in the developed nations will now depend much more on how the consumer acts in India, China and other emerging markets. Demand for imports of high value manufactured goods from the BRIC countries can help drive forward recovery in western countries. There is evidence that Germany, France and Spain are enhancing manufacturing capacity to match the increasing demand from India and other countries, I hope the UK will follow suit.

Energy is going to be an important sector in 2010 as we move more towards clean technologies it will create new manufacturing opportunities in both the developing and developed world. Infrastructure represents a similar opportunity, the high demand in India and Africa will create opportunities for specialised companies in the western world. Africa will be the focus of a push for increased global agricultural production.

As Developing countries return to stronger growth they will help push the whole of the global economy out of recession. Consequently, how the developing world manages its economies will have a much greater impact on the western countries than ever before.

2009 was not the end of globalisation as some predicted, rather, we have seen just how linked the world economies have become. Globalisation will now be driven more by the BRIC countries, the G20 and the developing world than before, so it is in all our best interests to see the Developing world do better.

In this light I hope that 2010 will see a successful conclusion to the Doha Round of trade talks, this will depend much on the level of emphasis the developed countries put on it. In 2010 I think the major difference will be in the respective importance of the G20 and G8. The G20 will come to the fore on most Global Issues. There has been a reversal that will be all the more obvious in 2010, for the last 2 decades the consumer in the West has been buying from the manufacturer in the East, now it is the Consumers in Asian Countries that will drive forward the next stage of globalisation.

The G20 and Global Trade

The G20’s agenda has radically changed over the last year; discussion now centres on the financial crisis and the future management of the global banking system. I am saddened to see Global trade had slipped off the G20s radar, with the Doha Round looking increasing unlikely to be revived this year further talks on this important topic are needed.

Despite the current economic turmoil the Global Trade is growing and increasing, particularly Intra-Asian Trade, the Asian Development Bank recently stated that “the region would grow more strongly than expected this year and in 2010…Despite [difficult] conditions in the global economic environment, developing Asia is poised to lead the recovery from the worldwide slowdown”.

Asia’s continued growth is despite the decline in Trade with the traditional western markets, growth has benefited from strong Intra-Asian trade. Intra-Asian trade has helped maintain growth while the largest export markets have dramatically reduced their spending. CBC feels that Intra Africa trade can follow the same model; we have been working with governments and the private sector over the last 10 years to enhance this. We have seen impressive increases and look forward to working with partners to push this even further.

We hope that global trade will soon be back on the agenda for G20 meetings.

Indian Elections

I would like to congratulate Manmohan Singh on his election as India’s Prime Minister, the workings of the world’s largest democracy are an impressive sight nearly 1 billion people have chosen their representatives.

This election marks a particular change in India’s politics; the congress party now has a working majority and can no longer be held to ransom by the smaller parties that were previously able to prevent governments from taking action. With the ruling party now longer beholden to minority interest progress can now be made on the Doha round as both the US and UK want and expect, leading to further economic reforms in the labour, legal and financial spheres.

Equally India has a major role to play in the response to the financial crisis; European and especially UK Business are looking to India as partners for ventures there and abroad with a high expectation of success. Finally with India looking to be one of the big winners in the proposed IMF reforms in terms of voting rights, India role in the global economy and the Institutions that govern it can only grow.

What to do in the Wake of Doha Collapse

The Collapse of the Doha talks in Geneva last week is a shame, it weakens the WTO as an international institution and gives us a worrying view of the international communities intransigence even when perusing things that would benefit all, namely Freer Trade. What will happen when the harder and more devise issue of Climate Change is up for debate?

I am sure Pascal Lamy will attempt to resurrect the Round, but when is another matter, the upcoming US elections will make this all the harder, with both candidates advocating differing positions - negotiations may well be back at square one before they even start.

In the mean time then, I believe that each Country represented at the talks should demonstrate its commitment to Free Trade, by unilaterally putting in place what they would have accepted in Geneva. If India and China, for example, were to open their agricultural industries, even with the contentious ‘safeguard trigger’ in place, trade would still increase and all would benefit.

This I believe is the best way forward; it will demonstrate the international community’s commitment to Free Trade, and make resurrecting the Round easier as everyone’s position will be readily apparent when talks eventually restart.