G20

One of the inevitable results of the Global Financial crisis was the widening of international economic discourses beyond the G8. I welcome the official recognition of G20 in this new role, as the first line of the Communiqué put it, Canada was the first meeting of the G20 in its ‘new capacity as the premier forum for our international economic cooperation’. The G20 is a bigger and more inclusive forum than its predecessor the G8, containing wider views and more of the countries who were least affected by the financial crisis. The G20 should be better placed than the ‘western’ orientated G8 to prevent future banking crises.

I also welcome and fully support Prime Minster David Cameron’s remarks during the summit on the importance of the Doha round of trade talks. He commented that all countries will befit from an increase in trade flows and that his government would be pushing for the rounds conclusion. He added that the concluded round could contribute over $170 billion to the world economy, this I think would be very welcome at a time when global growth is still sluggish.

Finally i was pleased that a B20 meeting was held alongside the G20 meeting for the first time. This gathering of business leaders was designed to allow the views of the private sector to be fed into the G20’s deliberations. The private sector is essential to ensuring a sustainable global recovery. I am pleased that John Denton, a CBC Board Member, was representing Australian business at the event and look forward to working closely with the B20 in the future.

What will 2010 bring?

Contrary to all expectations at the beginning of the year 2009 ended with a majority of the developing nations in surprisingly strong economic positions. Most of the largest developing nation stock markets have recouped all the losses made in 2008, and countries such as China and India have avoided recession all together, only experiencing reduced growth. 2010 will have a much greater emphasis on the G20 and the BRICs countries than we have ever seen.

Recovery in the developed nations will now depend much more on how the consumer acts in India, China and other emerging markets. Demand for imports of high value manufactured goods from the BRIC countries can help drive forward recovery in western countries. There is evidence that Germany, France and Spain are enhancing manufacturing capacity to match the increasing demand from India and other countries, I hope the UK will follow suit.

Energy is going to be an important sector in 2010 as we move more towards clean technologies it will create new manufacturing opportunities in both the developing and developed world. Infrastructure represents a similar opportunity, the high demand in India and Africa will create opportunities for specialised companies in the western world. Africa will be the focus of a push for increased global agricultural production.

As Developing countries return to stronger growth they will help push the whole of the global economy out of recession. Consequently, how the developing world manages its economies will have a much greater impact on the western countries than ever before.

2009 was not the end of globalisation as some predicted, rather, we have seen just how linked the world economies have become. Globalisation will now be driven more by the BRIC countries, the G20 and the developing world than before, so it is in all our best interests to see the Developing world do better.

In this light I hope that 2010 will see a successful conclusion to the Doha Round of trade talks, this will depend much on the level of emphasis the developed countries put on it. In 2010 I think the major difference will be in the respective importance of the G20 and G8. The G20 will come to the fore on most Global Issues. There has been a reversal that will be all the more obvious in 2010, for the last 2 decades the consumer in the West has been buying from the manufacturer in the East, now it is the Consumers in Asian Countries that will drive forward the next stage of globalisation.

The G20 and Global Trade

The G20’s agenda has radically changed over the last year; discussion now centres on the financial crisis and the future management of the global banking system. I am saddened to see Global trade had slipped off the G20s radar, with the Doha Round looking increasing unlikely to be revived this year further talks on this important topic are needed.

Despite the current economic turmoil the Global Trade is growing and increasing, particularly Intra-Asian Trade, the Asian Development Bank recently stated that “the region would grow more strongly than expected this year and in 2010…Despite [difficult] conditions in the global economic environment, developing Asia is poised to lead the recovery from the worldwide slowdown”.

Asia’s continued growth is despite the decline in Trade with the traditional western markets, growth has benefited from strong Intra-Asian trade. Intra-Asian trade has helped maintain growth while the largest export markets have dramatically reduced their spending. CBC feels that Intra Africa trade can follow the same model; we have been working with governments and the private sector over the last 10 years to enhance this. We have seen impressive increases and look forward to working with partners to push this even further.

We hope that global trade will soon be back on the agenda for G20 meetings.

A socially relevant banking system

It is clear that the G20 meetings of Heads of Government and Finance Ministers are becoming a useful forum for tackling the banking crisis. Sharing ideas and experience is essential for the development of a new legal framework for the banking industry. The framework must walk a narrow line of preventing the kind of extreme risk taking that caused the financial crisis, without stifling the banking sectors ability to innovate.

What is clear is that banks can no longer be seen as an offset part of society, answerable to no one. If banks are so important to a Country that they cannot be allowed to fail, it is essential that they are not seen to be performing ‘Socially useless activities’ as Lord Turner, Head of the FSA put it.

It is a good sign for the Banking Industry and for all of us, that those who work in the Sector have been soul searching and are beginning to see the need for a socially relevant industry. Speaking in the FT over the weekend the Chief Executive of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, japans largest bank, said “if we blindly pursue profits to an excessive degree, it results in many things going wrong”. He argues, quite rightly I think, that a banks role should be “as a lubricant for economic activity” and that financial innovation is fine “as long as it leads to greater social welfare”.

The G20, the IMF and the Doha Round

The G20 meeting last week is being hailed as a success and in many respects I think it was, I hope it will be a helpful step on the road to recovery. The meeting represents the start of a new global process as both the developed and emerging economies come together to form a new Global Forum.

For the developing countries, one of the best outcomes was the larger commitments made to the IMF. According to the Closing statement the Organisations resources have been trebled to $750 Billion, consequently the IMF is going to become a much more important actor on the world stage. The next thing on its agenda must be reform and reorganisation to ensure it can match its new responsibilities in restoring the flows of trade and finance to the developing world.

I was, however, disappointed by how little progress was made on international trade. The requisite statements were made regarding resisting protectionism, but a stronger commitment to the Doha round would have been encouraging in this time of decreasing global growth.

From G7 to G20 - The Financial Crisis

The G7 finance ministers meeting on the 13th passed almost un-noticed there were the requisite statements on coordinating the response to the financial crisis, resisting the pull of protectionism, and the importance of free trade, but no progress on an international trade deal, or a global response to the crisis.

The real priority is to shore up the banking system. Governments should take action together to remove toxic assets from banks’ balance sheets through insurance schemes, and reopen the flow of credit. Im surprised that Governments are mainly taking advice from bankers in this restructuring, when input should come from as wide as possible, including other sectors of the economy.

Attention is now focused on the G20 meeting in London in April, with many hoping that it will become the starting point for recovery, for a new global financial and governance structure.

Trade Talks and the Financial Crisis

The current state of the world economy and the financial crisis makes the successful conclusion of the Doha Round of trade talks all the more unlikely.

The Heads of the G8 Countries are making all the right noises about resisting the draw of protectionism in a retracting market situation and with increasing unemployment at home, but for all this, the result is the same; the Round is not likely to be completed in the present climate and almost certainly not within the year.

While I congratulate Pascal Lamy for his continuous and seemingly untiring efforts to keep moving forward with the Round, I do not believe that either the upcoming G8 or G20 meetings will hasten the conclusion of the Doha talks.